Happy days are here again, the skies above are clear again, let’s sing a song of cheer again, happy days are here again! We’ve waited over 8 years to say this. All the pain and suffering in our real estate market is behind us. Forget about foreclosures, see ya later short sales. It’s time for us to move freely about the state.
So why all the excitement? It’s all about supply and demand. We currently have 2.3 months supply of homes. With an average of 7000 homes sold per month, if we did not get any more inventory, we would sell out of homes in 2.3 months! So that is how we determine supply. We currently have just under 20,000 homes for sale. That is the lowest inventory we have seen since 2012.
Arizona has seen about 80,000 people relocate to the area in the past year. That was double the expectations. Surprise, surprise. Others are seeing what we know to be true. Arizona is a great place to live and that is helping to fuel our demand for homes. We also know to be true that the right home for buyers is a home that is fixed up or updated. The right home or a Sibbach listed home, is a home that sells for more money and in less time than other homes. Remember, using me or another Realtor costs the same; I just get you different results!
New Year Market Expectations-2014
What will the 2014 real estate market look like? As we predicted we have returned to a more normal market. A normal market is not sexy and definitely does not sell headlines. One of the headlines we will begin to see is that prices are coming down. List prices, yes. Actual values, no. Let me explain. Current sellers just came off a 23% year over year price increase. Whey they price their home to sell they apply that increase to their home, pricing it above actual value, thinking that the market is going up 20+%. However with a balanced market, we’re now seeing value increases flatten out. That means every new sale doesn’t set a high price in the neighborhood. Now, only the spectacular ones will do that. That’s the difference between the Sibbach Team and our competitors; we coach you on how to get the most money out of your home. Between our list of contractors, HSA certified Stager and the fact we’ve been in more homes in this area than most realtors, we’re able to coach you on exactly how to get the most money possible.
Want to know what your home is worth? Call me for a FREE Market Analysis…delivered to your door within 48 hours!
At the start of the new year, we have experienced some dips and spikes in the average price/SF but don’t fret. The average price per square foot in Arrowhead tends to fluctuate monthly. January was lower than December, but if you compare it to a year ago, February 2012 at $87.80 compared to last month $109.37. That is a 24.5% year over year increase. But…this can be misleading. Here’s why.
Monthly sales values do not have enough volume to be used as trend lines, which is why the number goes up and down…especially now with inventory at an all time low. If you track monthly sales, you know that in the majority of the last ten years, Jan/Feb has the least amount of sales in a month due to the holidays being the least likely time of year to buy. Also we run into the greater problem with averages; they are good to help show the direction the market is moving, but they do not help price your specific home. This is where market expertise comes into play. We are proud that the last 47 homes we have sold we told the owner within 2.5% what their house would sell for. Compare that to Zillow’s median error of 11% for this area.
If you are thinking about selling, call my direct line: 602-329-7782. We’ll have a CMA on your doorstep within 48 hours.
**NOTE: Even though inventory is low we are still seeing a high demand of buyers in the Arrowhead Ranch area. On a short sale listing I had under contract, I had just received 5 calls from agents within 1 week, hoping it was going to come back on the market so they could show their clients. It is rare that we get calls from agents for homes under contract. That just shows you how low inventory is and how many buyers are out there looking for homes in Arrowhead Ranch. If you are thinkig about selling your home, now is the start of the selling/buying season.
2012 Year End Arrowhead Ranch Real Estate Report
This is not just another article about the improving real estate market. We’re here to tell you what actually happened in 2012 and tell you what to expect over the next 12 months so you can prepare your next move.
First let’s talk about supply. In real estate circles, supply refers to the inventory of homes available for sale. A year ago this time Arrowhead Ranch had 75 homes for sale (single family and condos). Currently there are 37 homes for sale in Arrowhead Ranch. To sum it up, supply is low and down from this time last year.
Next, demand is the amount of homes sold and the amount of buyers that will buy in the near future. In 2011 Arrowhead Ranch had 251 homes sold for the entire year. Last year Arrowhead Ranch had 286 sales. Although the supply is down, the demand for homes is high. There is not enough inventory to meet the demand, therefore we are seeing an increase in prices. The dip in prices from November to December is an adjustment due to seasonal changes in our market.