Scottsdale Real Estate Market Reports

Where is the Market Going? – Fall 2021

As you can see in the chart below, list prices peaked in June. We’ve also seen price reductions double since February. What does this mean for the value of your property? Call me today to chat! 602-329-7782

AVERAGE LIST PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT (Source: Active Listings ARMLS)

 

fall 2021 real estate market

 

 

Inman Connect Conference – June 2021

Hello, Friends!

I would like to share with everyone the good fortune I had to have been chosen to participate on a panel at the Inman Connect Conference this June!

Each year Inman sponsors a national conference where Industry experts from around the world come together to offer insights about the market, technology and the trends that are shaping the real estate market. Jeff Sibbach, my mentor and one of the most respected agents in the valley, was asked to speak about some of the recent changes handed down regarding advertising, and the MLS new rules and how they impact our ability to service our clients.

As one of the top agents on the Sibbach Team, I was honored to have been invited to participate in this panel!

Inman 2021

Joe Rand, Inman contributor and author of How to be a Great Real Estate Agent, was our moderator. Sam DeBord, CEO of RESO, Real Estate Standards Organization was also one of the speakers.

It was truly an honor to have been asked to be a part of this panel and my success is largely due to your support through the years!

Thank you,
Elise

From June Gloom to June Bloom


Last year, 2020 – the ultimate “June Gloom”. This year, 2021 is bringing us “June Bloom”! See the red demand line in the chart coming down? How about the blue supply line that has just begun to sideways?

Historically speaking, summer is a busy season for real estate as families prefer to move when the kids are out of school, yet 2020 was an anomaly. Covid-19 test results were peaking last summer, so most of us stayed home to self-quarantine in an effort to keep our families healthy. The real estate market dramatically changed because homeowners took down their for-sale signs because they did not want people (and germs!) entering their homes. This led to even lower supply numbers than we previously had seen.

Demand remained constant because of lower interest rates. As demand remained strong and supply fell we saw prices rise. Supply fell because of a few factors:

  1. Record low building across the country as home builders were still gun shy from the last boom/bust.
  2. Sellers are pulling homes off the market because they didn’t want to invite covid into their home.
  3. Sellers started to see the value of their homes go and it’s hard to sell an appreciating asset.

Multiple offers became the norm. Buyers had to come out of pocket to cover the difference between appraised values and purchase price. Let me say that in a different way. Buyers had to have more cash to buy a house than the norm because when they were under contract for $315,000 or $3,500,000 and the home would only appraise for $300,000 or $3,000,000 it meant they had to negotiate down the seller or come out of pocket to cover the price above appraised value.

Look at these Cromford Market Index numbers  – Cromford Market Index is how balanced the market is between buyers and sellers. 100 is balanced. We’ve been at record highs, but all cities except for Surprise has turned back towards balanced.

Why June Bloom?

Today, as we prepare to turn the calendar to June and summer 2021 is upon us, the real estate market is slowly turning back to normal. Mask mandates are being lifted and for sale signs are going back up – even though we’re still severely under average supply levels.

Because the higher-priced houses have closed and can now be used for appraisals, it’s easier and requires less cash to buy a house today than in February. Appraisals catching up to values means less cash needed to buy a house at the agreed-upon contract price. We actually had a contract for a buyer at $315,000 this week that appraised for $330,000!! Woo-hoo!! Instead of coming to the table with $15k cash, they came to the table with $15,000 of equity.

In the chart below you can see the Cromford Market Index turned 3 months ago! That’s a good thing. Another reason why I love this chart is because the CMI is overlaid on average appreciation levels. You can see the last time the CMI dipped below balanced, it took almost a year for prices to stop appreciating.

Supply has started to creep up.

Demand is starting to creep down.

We’re by no means back to a “buyer’s market” but at least we’re done going to an ultra extreme “seller’s market”.

If you are a buyer and were worn out by the craziness and cash reserve requirements, the good news is it’s getting a little easier. Yes, prices are higher than a year ago, but at least the difference in purchase price can be financed.

Market Value Versus Assessed Value

phoenix home for saleThere are different valuations of a home’s worth and you should understand the difference between market value and assessed value. It’s important to understand what your home is worth. Knowing your homes value gives you an idea of how much you could receive if you sold the property.  It also plays a part in determining how much property tax you’ll be required to pay.

Market Value is used to determine how much a buyer would be willing to pay for your home. An appraiser, usually hired by your lender, determines market value. This value is a vital tool in helping to decide what price to list a property for. Sellers often want to list based on what they feel a buyer would want to pay. However, it is better to list a property based on current market conditions. Market value is based on recent sales of similar homes in the area, along with other factors.

Assessed Value puts market value in the context of property taxes and is based on the laws of the state or county in which you live. Assessed value is calculated as a percentage of the market value of the property. Assessed value is determined by an assessor’s office. Some offices have databases open to the public for you to see the history of your property, as well as what information what factored into its assessment.

Do you have more questions about your home’s value? Feel free to call me with your questions!  I’m always willing to answer any of your questions so that you can feel comfortable with the home buying or selling process! 602-329-7762

Get your free home value estimate here!

Phoenix – A Great Spot for Real Estate Investment

Aviano homeToday, investing in real estate isn’t rocket science. It is pretty simple. Find a home up for sale at an affordable price, buy it, do some renovation works and put it up for sale for a higher price than you bought it when the value goes up. You can as well rent it out while you wait for it to appreciate in value. It is an easy business for those who know their onions.

Apparently, the most crucial part of real estate investing is knowing the best homes that will yield maximum value for every penny you spend when the time to sell comes. While there is no full guarantee that the property you are buying will be worth your money, the odds of a successful real estate investment increases largely when you target the right cities.

Now the big question will be “what makes a city right for real estate investment?” a major trait to look out for is whether the area in question is booming and bustling economically. Areas that favor real estate investment are cities known to be actively attracting entrepreneurs (most especially in the tech sector), enjoying solid job growth, and have bustling factories and warehouses.

Another major factor to consider is the climate and outdoor living condition of the city. There is a higher chance of getting better offers for your property if it is located in a peaceful, crime-free environment with a desirable climate.

All the factors listed above can be found in Arizona thus making it a great spot for real estate investment offering a wide range of opportunities both to buyers and investors.

Arizona is at the moment enjoying rapid economic growth which is in turn pushing in buyers. Jobs are getting added at twice the national rate in Phoenix and Prescott especially in the finance and health sector while Flagstaff has been enjoying great returns in tourism, a major criterion for a great real estate hub.

Investing in real estate in Arizona also gives you better value for your money compared to larger cities. As a result, you pay less for higher value. A comparison of the price of real estate in Phoenix has shown that while you may buy a 2500 square foot home in Phoenix for $250,000, you will pay up to $550, 000 in Los Angeles for the same property and as high as $585,000 dollars in Seattle.

Arizona is also a great place for work and pleasure, and this makes it the perfect place to invest your money.  The outdoor climate in Phoenix makes it just perfect, plus a rarely humid cool summer with over 8 months of perfectly clear weather. Thrill seekers in search of adventures find life in Arizona quite interesting with several miles of areas to hike and bike, and a long list of other outdoor sports/activities such as golfing, mountain biking, running, golfing, fishing, camping, kart racing and a large number of lakes to explore and keep them busy.

Because tourism is such a big deal in Arizona, several property buyers and renters are available all year round. Asides the myriad reasons already stated, many visitors choose Arizona for vacation due to its several tourist attractions including the majestic Grand Canon in the North. Arizona also boasts of art galleries, shopping areas and a number of amazing eateries.  The Phoenix Art Museum and Heard Museum provide visitors with a feel of the local art and Native American culture.

These and other factors are responsible for the boom in real estate properties in Phoenix, Flagstaff and Prescott and other cities of Arizona making it a perfect destination for investors.

Contact me if you are looking to buy for yourself or invest in a property in Phoenix, metro area.

 Arrowhead Ranch Real Estate Report

Elise Fay

Elise Fay, REALTOR®

Our last update in December 2015 talked about the strength of the market and we predicted that we would see approximately a 7.5% price appreciation, year over year. So what has happened during this quarter of 2016?

So far we have seen a 6% increase in prices in the 1st quarter, year over year.  Last year the valley as a whole had a 6.5% appreciation in prices, with some parts of the valley seeing higher numbers.

Right now, we have approximately 22,000 active listings on the market. This same time last year we also had about 22,000 active listings. No real change there. But…this March we sold 8502 homes. In March 2015 we sold about 7900 homes. Why the increase in demand?  Supply, Demand and Low Interest Rates.

sibbach-team-logoWith solid price appreciation, sellers are now “unfrozen” or entering the spring thaw, coming out from underneath heavy mortgage debt and can now sell, buyers have recovered as well. We typically see a 5% price increase when inventory is about 4-5 mos supply. Now and for the past 8 mos. we have seen inventory still at all time lows of about 3.3 mos. Lower supply, stronger demand. Buyers are out in full force, ready, willing and able to buyer. Are you ready to sell?

Arrowhead Sold Homes –March 2016

Sold Address Square Footage Price
3/1/2016 20786 N. 61st Dr 3167 $489,900
3/8/2016 21693 N. 61st Ave 2239 $339,500
3/25/2016 6353 W. Aurora Dr 1827 $290,000
4/5/2016 6154 W. Quail Ave 3309 $415,000
4/15/2016 5640 W. Arrowhead Lakes Dr

3655

$570,000

 

Sibbach Team For Sale sign

There are a couple factors helping our demand rise. 1  Banks will now lend people money  who have short sold or foreclosed on a house over 4 years ago. These tenants are now turning back into buyers. 2. Confidence. Our marketplace has seen positive appreciation since the the dark years. Financing is still somewhat tight, so this type of market growth is much healthier than what we witnessed in 2005. 3. Population growth. Improving economies around the country are allowing people to sell their homes and move to the sunshine. Arizona is the only state that has rising population in each of the generational categories that are buying homes; Millennials, Gen Xers, Baby Boomers, etc.

Arrowhead Ranch Real Estate Report

Another yeElise Fayar has come and gone. I hope everyone had a wonderful holiday season and I sincerely wish you and your loved ones a healthy and happy 2016! So what happened in 2015?

Here are some market stats:

  • 84,171 homes sold in 2015. 10% increase over 2014
  • Approx 2.8 mos of inventory. At this time we have about 20,556 homes for sale. On average we sell about 7000 homes/month.
  • Just as we predicted prices rose about 6.7% for 2015
  • Over 100,000 people have moved to Arizona this past year.

 

Another indicator of a strong housing market is seen in the number of “new builds” in our area. A small explosion is taking place in N. Peoria along Deer Valley Rd & the Lake Pleasant Corridor.

Sibbach Team logo

Top 1% Realtors in Maricopa County

Elise Fay

Elise Fay, REALTOR®

We are 4 full years past the bottom of the real estate market and for the most part we have recovered. There is lower than average inventory of homes (still some folks cannot sell yet), prices are up, demand is strong, people are relocating, others are downsizing, upsizing or just looking for a change of scenery. What remains true is “fixed up houses sell for more money in a shorter amount of time”. Our exclusive stager can help you maximize your $$$. *Call me for a special “New Build” Home Tour and ask about my buyer incentive plan when you take me on your first visit.

 

Arrowhead Sold Homes – Dec 2015

Sold Address   Built Features Price
12/2/2015 5315 W. Mohawk Dr    1996 63FRDXPO3G3S $535,000
12/4/2015 6515 W. Louise Dr    1994 32FRDX3G $300,000
12/18/2015 6177 W. Pontiac Dr    1995 32R2G2S $215,000
12/15/2015 20262 N. 61st Ave    1992 32FRDPS2G $278,000
12/15/2015 22014 N. 59th Ln    1994 54FRDXP3G3S $396,250
12/23/2015 5926 W. Louise Dr    1994 43.5RPSO3G2S $375,000
12/24/2015 6551 W Lone Cactus    1992 42.5FRDXPSO3G3S $386,500
12/29/2015 5958 W Fieldstone    1994 42FRO2G3S $279,000
12/30/2015 21624 N. 59th Dr    1994 32FRDO3G6S $297,000
12/30/2015 21508 N 65th Ave    1993 42.5RDP3G $389,500
12/30/2015 20739 N. 56th Ave    1994 42.5FRDX3G $400,000
12/30/2015 5568 W Rose Garden    1995 42.5FRDXP3G $410,000

Home Prices & Mortgage Rates

Home Prices and the effect of Mortgage RatesHome Prices

Will the recent rise in mortgage interest rates have an effect on the housing market? Well the answer may surprise you. No. There is NO inverse correlation between interest rates and home prices. Historically housing prices have gone up when interest rates increased and they have gone up when interest rates were cut.

Let’s look at some of the scenarios.  According to Michael Orr, Cromford Report, from 1989 to 1991 home prices fell about 10%, but during this same period mortgage interest rates fell from about 10% to 8.5%. Between June 2006 and Aug 2011 home prices spiraled downward while interest rates dropped from about 6.75% to 4.5%.  In both of these situations, prices dropped just as interest rates fell.

The only time we see a fall in home prices is when supply outstrips demand. What do you know? In this complicated world we live in there are still some tried and true facts …it’s all about supply and demand.

From August 2011 to June 2013 interest rates have been down to about 3.5 to 4%. Home prices have seen a strong increase during this time period but the demand for homes is just up slightly.  In other words, the very attractive interest rates did not bring a huge influx of buyers into the market…demand was up a little bit, but not a lot. What drove home prices up? The lack of supply in relation to demand.

So what effect will the rise in mortgage rates have on the housing market? Well believe it or not, it will create a sense of urgency and we could see more home buyers/sellers enter the market before it rises any higher.  We have seen it happen many times before. So if you are thinking of selling, this is a great time to get into the market…there will still be plenty of buyers out there.

Home Price Index-Rising Real Estate Prices

Home Prices On The Rise.Phoenix Real Estate Market

The Case-Shiller Home Price Index (HPI) was published today. Although this report is very promising, it does not reflect activity thru May but from the 1st quarter of this year, January thru March. The median date of sales for this Index is about February 14th, and according to Michael Orr of the Cromford Report, this is about 3.5 months from today. To imagine the HPI for today’s market we would have to allow an additional 105 days of home price changes.

Phoenix still leads the 20 cities reported…up 22.5%. Phoenix’s increase over the last month of about 1.7% looks pretty modest compare to other cities that are racing to the top at an incredibly fast pace. Here are the 20 cities ranked by percentage between Februaru and March of 2013.

1. San Francisco 3.9%
2. Seattle 3.0%
3. Las Vegas 2.7%
4. Portland 2.7%
5. Tampa 2.6%
6. Charlotte 2.4%
7. Los Angeles 2.3%
8. San Diego 2.2%
9. Phoenix 1.7%
10. Washington 1.7%
11. Denver 1.4%
12. Atlanta 1.3%
13. Dallas 1.3%
14. Miami 1.2%
15. Boston 1.2%
16. Detroit 0.0%
17. Cleveland 0.0%
18. Chicago 0.0%
19. New York -0.4%
20. Minneapolis -1.1%

The overall gain is about 1.4% which reflects the strong seasonal gain exhibited by some of these areas, but cities such as Minneapolis and New York are showing a decline as their market is different than other cities since they have “different” weather patterns which affects their seasonal growth for this time of year.

Looking at the 20 cities over the past 12 months we can see the following changes.

1. Phoenix 22.5%
2. San Francisco 22.2%
3. Las Vegas 20.6%
4. Atlanta 19.1%
5. Detroit 18.5%
6. Los Angeles 16.6%
7. Portland 12.8%
8. Minneapolis 12.5%
9. San Diego 12.1%
10. Tampa 11.8%
11. Miami 10.7%
12. Seattle 10.6%
13. Denver 9.8%
14. Chicago 7.8%
15. Washington 7.7%
16. Charlotte 7.3%
17. Dallas 6.8%
18. Boston 6.7%
19. Cleveland 4.8%
20. New York 2.6%

Contact me for up to the minute market updates and a more detailed report of what is going on in yor neighborhood. We will be happy to customize a report for you and your community.

Distressed Home Sales- Phoenix Real Estate

Distressed Home Sales-Phoenix Real EstateDistressed Home Sales – Phoenix Real Estate

 

The stats are out and just as we have said the market is recovering but really how much? Here is the real story.

Distressed Home Sales – Phoenix Real Estate dominated the landscapae of our market in recent years. Prior to 2011, lender owned (bank owned) home sales outpaced the short sale market.  By 2011 that trend was reversed and short sales became the primary component of Distressed Home Sales in Phoenix Real Estate Market. By the end of 2012 short sales outnumbered lender owned sales by 2:1. Read more